A couple of years ago, Ilon Musk (Elon Musk) was performed by optimism, arguing that in the coming years Tesla will be able to increase the sales of electric vehicles by an average of 50 % per year, and by the end of a decade to increase the annual circulation to 20 million cars. Last year, he reduced the growth forecast by the current up to 20-30 %, but analysts now propose counting on an even more modest progress in the region of 16 %.
Thus, if last year Tesla sold about 1.8 million electric vehicles, this year it will limit deliveries to 2.07 million units. If Tesla management’s own forecast had been realized, it would have sold at least 2.3 million electric vehicles this year. Last year, their sales decreased for the first time in the company’s history, albeit by less than one percent. In the two years prior, Tesla had demonstrated the ability to increase EV shipments by 40% annually on average.
The situation for Tesla is aggravated by the fact that Donald Trump is determined to cancel subsidies for the sale of electric vehicles in the United States and generally deviate from the ringing of a “green agenda”, which costs the country’s budget too expensive. Under the recently, buyers of Tesla electric vehicles in the United States could, under certain conditions, count on a tax deduction in the amount of $ 7,500 per car. According to Barclays analysts, two -thirds of Tesla products in the United States used such a subsidy.
Since changes in the policy to stimulate sales of electric vehicles in the United States will come into force only next year, some growth in sales volumes can still be expected this year. At least in the second half of the year, American buyers may accelerate their decision-making in light of the looming removal of subsidies. Representatives of BNP Paribas Exane, even in this case, estimate the annual increase in sales volumes of Tesla electric vehicles at a modest 12%. The electric vehicle market itself is slowing growth, and in the case of Tesla products, it is under pressure from Chinese competitors and declining demand for the Cybertruck. If in 2023 electric vehicles occupied 7.6% of the US primary market, then in 2024 their share only increased to 8%. At the same time, the general vector of Trump’s foreign policy could harm Tesla’s business in China, which remains the largest market for electric vehicles. On the other hand, Musk’s proximity to Trump could speed up the entry of full autopilot into the market from a regulatory perspective, which would be a favorable factor for Tesla.
The Tesla model range itself is also quite outdated, even taking into account the recent release of a restyled version of the brand’s best-selling crossover Model Y. This week Tesla will publish a detailed quarterly report, and some analysts are expecting news about new ones from the traditionally eloquent head of the company at a specialized event. more affordable electric vehicles of the brand, the announcement of which may take place this year. When releasing such cars, Tesla will use elements of the platform that it was preparing for the $25,000 model, but last year the company revised plans to produce such an electric car in its pure form.
Representatives of the RBC Capital Markets believe that even by the end of the decade Tesla will be able to sell 6 million electric vehicles annually. From the point of view of capitalization, the company will also receive a certain bonus from the release of human -like Optimus robots, so investors no longer evaluate it exclusively as a car manufacturer.