UN: AI to destroy nearly half of jobs by 2033

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicts that the artificial intelligence (AI) market will reach $4.8 trillion by 2033, but the benefits of AI will be limited to a limited number of participants, which could widen the gap between developed and developing countries. To prevent this from happening, developing countries should have access to discussions on AI regulation and ethical frameworks, UNCTAD believes.

Image source: Steve Johnson/unsplash.com

According to the agency’s report, in eight years the market capitalization of AI will be comparable to the size of the German economy, and the technology will provide productivity growth and stimulate digital transformation. At the same time, UNCTAD warned that the development of AI could lead to the reduction of about 40% of jobs worldwide. And not everyone will benefit from the economic implementation of AI.

«The benefits of AI-driven automation often favor capital over labor, which could increase inequality and reduce the competitive advantage of cheap labor in developing economies,” the report said.

The IMF warned more than a year ago that the development of AI technologies could lead to unemployment and inequality. In January, the World Economic Forum published a report according to which up to 41% of employers plan to reduce their workforce in areas where they could be replaced by AI.

The UNCTAD report also highlights significant inequalities between countries in AI development and deployment. According to the UN, 40% of global corporate spending on AI research and development is accounted for by just 100 companies, mostly in the US and China. The report also notes that leading tech companies like Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft, which could benefit from the deployment of AI technologies, have a market value greater than the GDP of the entire African continent. According to the report, 118 countries – mostly in the global South – are not participating in mainstream discussions on AI governance, and dominance of AI development at the national and corporate levels threatens to widen the technological divide between countries, with many at risk of being left behind.

The report found that AI not only leads to job losses, but also creates new opportunities, allowing for the creation of new industries and empowerment of workers – provided there is sufficient investment in reskilling and upskilling.

The UNCTAD report makes a number of recommendations to the international community to promote inclusive growth. These include a mechanism for public disclosure of AI information, a common AI infrastructure, the use of open-source AI models, and initiatives to share AI knowledge and resources.

AI can be a catalyst for progress, innovation, and shared prosperity, but only if countries actively shape its trajectory, experts say. Strategic investment, inclusive governance, and international cooperation are key to ensuring that AI benefits everyone rather than exacerbating existing divisions.