Trump believes the US is capable of producing up to 40% of the world’s advanced chips

TSMC’s announcement of an additional $100 billion in U.S. investment in its U.S. facilities prompted TrendForce to analyze the trend, and conclude that by the end of the decade, the U.S. will produce 22% of the world’s advanced chips. Donald Trump raises that to 40%.

Image source: GlobalFoundries

The trend toward geographic segmentation of chip production was already established in 2018, and it was reinforced by the pandemic and further geopolitical escalation. In 2021, Taiwan accounted for 71% of semiconductor production in advanced lithography and 53% in mature. By 2030, due to the migration of production outside the island, its share in the advanced segment will decrease to 58%, while the mature segment will drop to 30%.

The main growth regions in this case will be the United States and China. The former will double their share in the period from 2021 to 2030, from 11 to 22%. Although China will try to increase production volumes, due to sanctions, its capabilities will be limited and it will lag behind the general pace, as a result of which its share in the global production of advanced chips will decrease from 6 to 5%. Japan is aiming for 4% of the world’s production of advanced components by the end of the decade, although at the beginning of the period it did not have the corresponding capacity. South Korea will reduce its share from 12 to 7%, and this will largely serve as a reproach to Samsung Electronics, which has been unable to solve its problems with contract manufacturing for several years.

By the way, Donald Trump sets even more ambitious goals for the American semiconductor industry. If the predecessor’s team expected to increase the US share in the advanced lithography segment to 20%, Trump doubles this threshold to 40%. Under the subsidy program, the previous administration managed to distribute only $4.3 billion out of the $39 billion provided by the “Chip Act”. If the program continues to be implemented under Trump, the main expense item for the American budget will be tax deductions for its participants. According to some estimates, they will cost the state $85 billion.