The US is hopelessly losing to China in scientific potential in microelectronics, and sanctions will not change anything

China is rapidly gaining ground in next-generation chip design and manufacturing, surpassing the United States in both the number of scientific publications and their impact. According to Georgetown University (GU), Chinese researchers published more than twice as many scientific papers as their American counterparts between 2018 and 2023. This fundamental research threatens the effectiveness of U.S. export controls, which could lead to the loss of their dominant position in advanced chip design.

Image source: Mathew Schwartz / Unsplash

Moreover, 50% of the articles included in the 10% most cited papers in this field were written with the participation of authors from China. By comparison, American researchers participated in only 22% of such publications, and European scientists in 17%. This gap demonstrates China’s deliberate strategy aimed at achieving a leading position in fundamental research in the field of microelectronics.

Chinese research spans a broad range of disciplines, including physics, materials science, electronics, computer science, and AI. The focus of Chinese researchers is on traditional silicon semiconductor chips, specialized graphics processing units (GPUs) for AI, fundamentally new computing architectures, neuromorphic processors, and optical chips. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize computing systems by increasing their performance and energy efficiency, making them strategically important for the future of high-performance computing.

Analysts at the Advanced Technology Observatory (ETO) used machine learning (ML) to process and classify thousands of scientific publications, focusing on breakthrough technologies rather than incremental commercial improvements that often remain corporate secrets. This approach helped identify key areas of scientific research that determine which countries will emerge as leaders in the development of high-tech computing systems.

Top cited research is the top 10% of papers in each year that have received the most citations. Image source: ETO

The analysis only included articles with abstracts in English, highlighting their international relevance. This means that the sample only includes papers by Chinese researchers that are aimed at an international scholarly audience, rather than domestic studies published exclusively in Chinese. However, even in this selection, China shows a significant advantage over the US and Europe.

Yunji Chen, head of the State Key Laboratory of Processors in Beijing and co-founder of Cambricon, notes that China has made significant progress in designing specialized AI chips. But manufacturing remains a bottleneck, he says, largely due to U.S. export restrictions. The sanctions have significantly hampered China’s access to advanced lithography machines and high-performance semiconductor components, holding back the development of China’s chip industry.

Since October 2022, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) has banned the sale of advanced microchips and equipment to China. US authorities explained this move by the fact that Beijing uses AI to “monitor, track, and surveil its own citizens” and to develop military technologies. Despite these measures, Chinese research has not only not slowed down, but continues to increase its influence on the global scientific community.

Cambricon’s Cambrian-1 chip uses a computing architecture specifically designed for deep learning AI. Image source: Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

The most promising areas of Chinese research include neuromorphic computing and optical processors. The former simulates the work of biological neural networks, which allows for the creation of more energy-efficient and high-performance computing systems. The latter, using photonic technologies, can replace electronic transistors and significantly increase the speed of data processing. China already leads in both of these areas in terms of the number of publications, which underlines its strategic advantage in developing new computing architectures.

Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at GU’s Center for Security and Advanced Technology, points out that China is actively developing the next generation of computing technologies that the U.S. does not have a monopoly on. Unlike traditional semiconductor technologies, these solutions do not require access to high-precision equipment that is subject to export restrictions. This makes U.S. efforts to curb Chinese technological advances significantly less effective.