The trade war has so far only increased shipments of goods from China

Apple’s rush to ship large quantities of iPhones from India in late March showed that tariff uncertainty is currently pushing supply chain participants to stockpile more inventory. Last week, 10% more containers were shipped from Chinese seaports than in the same period a year ago.

Image source: Huawei Technologies

Bloomberg reports this, citing official Chinese statistics. From April 13 to 20, seaports on the Chinese coast shipped 6.3 million containers of cargo, up 10% from last year. Positive dynamics of shipments have been observed in this direction for three months in a row. Sea shipments remain the dominant method of exporting goods from China, as more expensive air freight is used to a lesser extent, and rail freight is sent either to Europe or to surrounding Asian countries.

It is possible that the increase indicated last week is partly due to China’s desire to redirect some volume of goods to other countries, in addition to the United States, since in the latter case, increased customs rates came into effect and privileges for importing goods for personal use worth no more than $800 were canceled. In addition, Trump still temporarily exempted smartphones, computers and other electronic devices supplied from China to the United States from high duties. The corresponding trade turnover could be measured at $100 billion, as noted by the management of the Rand China Research Center.

Some economists believe that the supply of goods from the US to China will decrease more sharply than in the opposite direction. As a result, the US foreign trade deficit in the Chinese direction will increase. In the meantime, the load on logistics systems is only increasing. This week alone, the Port of Los Angeles intends to receive 13 sea vessels with cargo from China. More than 120,000 sea containers will be received at this port from all geographic directions. This figure is second only to the result of the previous week and is the second largest since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, rail shipments to Europe from China fell by 10% last quarter, based on data from local carriers. Marketplaces Shein and Temu will raise prices for their customers in the US this week as authorities lifted the duty-free threshold for goods imported by mail for up to $800. Prices in this area will continue to rise in May, although Chinese suppliers will be supported for some time by major players in the local market and the government.