The new iPhone SE could “cannibilize” the iPhone 16

Market prospects for the new family of Apple smartphones are assessed differently by analysts, although statistics from the first weeks suggest stable demand for new products. KeyBanc representatives believe that if the new generation iPhone SE is released in the spring of 2025, many buyers will prefer this inexpensive model to full-fledged representatives of the iPhone 16 family.

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A survey conducted by experts showed that 59% of respondents intend to switch to smartphones of the iPhone 16 family. At the same time, 61% of them are also interested in purchasing the new generation iPhone SE. According to KeyBanc analysts, this indicates a high probability of “cannibalization” of iPhone 16 sales by the future iPhone SE. In this case, iPhone sales volumes will still increase, but the average selling price will decrease due to a shift in demand towards the cheaper iPhone SE. This prevents KeyBanc from hoping for Apple’s 2025 revenue growth across all product categories and geographies.

Representatives from UBS recently suggested that in the third quarter, iPhone shipments in volume terms will remain at the level of the same period last year. According to representatives of J.P. Morgan, demand for the current generation of Apple smartphones remains at last year’s level, if you analyze the average waiting times for orders in branded online stores around the world. In such a situation, according to KeyBanc experts, critical to Apple’s revenue dynamics will be the ability to monetize the set of Apple Intelligence functions that provide access to artificial intelligence. So far, the expansion of these functions is proceeding in stages, and commercialization is not being prioritized.