The most dangerous asteroid in recorded history now threatens the Moon, not Earth

To assess the degree of danger of the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA used the agency’s most advanced instrument, the James Webb Space Telescope. Previously, asteroid 2024 YR4 was monitored by ground-based telescopes, including the most powerful of them, the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. Involving Webb in the observations made it possible to reduce the object’s degree of danger – the asteroid turned out to be smaller than scientists feared.

Image source: AI generation Grok 3/3DNews

According to the first estimates, the size of 2024 YR4 could be 40-90 m in diameter. This was indicated by the data on the brightness of the asteroid in sunlight. James Webb estimated the size of the asteroid based on its infrared radiation, which gave a more accurate result. It turned out that the size of 2024 YR4 is 53-67 m, which is approximately equal to a ten-story building. The asteroid is now moving away from Earth, but Webb will look after it again in May of this year. This perfect instrument turned out to be perfect in everything: it was able to look into the depths of the Universe, and also help to better understand the events in our home system.

The yellow color shows the asteroid’s probable passage near the Moon’s orbit. Image source: NASA

Experts from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated their data on the probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032. The previous assessment, made in February, put the probability of a collision at 1.7%. Based on observations from Webb and ground-based telescopes, the probability of a collision has been increased to 3.8%. The asteroid remains the most dangerous in the history of observations, but not for the Earth, but for the Moon. However, even if it crashes into our satellite, this will not lead to a change in its orbit, NASA reassures.