The increased probability of a collision of asteroid Bennu forced the Earth to calculate the consequences – they do not delight

Asteroid Bennu is much smaller than an asteroid that destroyed dinosaurs. But the dimensions of Benn are sufficient in order to cause cooling and tangible reduction in vegetation cover in case of falling to the ground. According to estimates, this asteroid may encounter the ground in September 2182. Scientists from South Korea assessed the possible damage to earthly ecosystems, if this happens.

Image source: IBS Center for Climate Physics

The probability of a collision of asteroid Bennu with the Earth is estimated as 1 to 2700, or 0.04 %. The dimensions of the asteroid reach 500 m in the diameter, and its fall will have serious consequences for the planet. Therefore, it is better for humanity to know in advance about threats for preparing response activities.

On Earth, there are many shock craters from clashes with large meteorites and asteroids. But they are all erased by erosion, which complicates not only the analysis of the consequences, but often even hides the traces of the blows. The scientists studied the traces of the fall of the “Asteroid dinosaurs” 66 million years ago – the Chiksulub crater, in the place of which the Gulf of Mexico is now. Particles from this impact can be found throughout the planet in a particular concentration. But what they have not done so far is the modeling of changes in ground and marine ecosystems, which was calculated in the event of Benna fell.

It is most of all to the ecosystem of the planet will not be affected by the blow of the 500th asteroid, but the consequences of the blow. Modeling showed that with such a collision, from 100 to 400 million tons of dust will be thrown into the atmosphere of the planet. This would violate the chemical composition of the atmosphere and would overshadow so much that the photosynthesis would prevent and hit the climate. Also, an ozone layer would collapse by 32 %, which would enhance the devastating effect on the animal and plant worlds.

«According to our models, the average global temperature will drop by 4 ° C, and the amount of precipitation in the world will decrease by 15 %. Cold winters would create adverse climatic conditions for plant growth, which would lead to the initial reduction in photosynthesis in ground and marine ecosystems by 20-30 %, the researchers explain. “This will probably cause massive problems in the field of global food security.”

Change in temperature, precipitation, vegetation and marine ecosystems in the first 24 months after the blow

But there is good news. Sea ecosystems will recover surprisingly quickly. This will contribute to the “sowing” seas and oceans with mineral fertilizers – particles of rocks and, especially, iron, thrown into the atmosphere and settled in water. This is especially true for algae for nutrition of zooplankton, which can also become the basis of the food diet for the surviving human civilization. Algae will grow to volumes that are much exceeding today’s.

In general, humanity will survive a clash with Asteroid Benn and, it seems, has already happened in the past. According to some estimates, asteroids of similar sizes fall to Earth every 100-200 thousand years, so that our ancestors have already encountered the consequences of such disasters and were able to survive in the conditions that have developed after them.