The robotic planetary defense system was discovered by the asteroid 2024 YR4, which dangerously get closer to the Earth in December 2032. In the ESA and NASA lists, the most dangerous near -earth celestial bodies object 2024 YR4 up to 60 meters wide in the first place in the degree of threat. This does not mean that it will certainly encounter the planet, but the chances of such an outcome exceeded 1 %, and this is no longer a joke.
Image source: AI generation Kandinsky 3.1/3DNews
The rapprochement of 2024 YR4 is predicted to the ground on December 22, 2032. On this day, the object will approach the planet at a distance of 106,200 km – this is more than three times closer than the distance to the moon. The error allowed in the calculations is such that the asteroid has some chance to encounter the planet.
At the moment, the asteroid is removed from the Earth, and it is not possible to clarify its size and the composition. The assessment is made by the brightness of the object and may be erroneous. Asteroid 2024 YR4 can be more than 60 meters or less. It will be possible to more accurately determine the characteristics of the object in 2028, when it approaches the Earth by 8 million km. In this case, it will be possible to use the radars and find out the composition and exact dimensions of 2024 YR4.
If the asteroid is rocky, then it will explode in the atmosphere, creating destruction, comparable to the fall of the Tunguska meteorite. If it is iron, then it will reach the surface of the earth and leave a shock crater behind. So far, the probable fall is predicted closer to the equator, although all current forecasts are quite approximate.
«The chances increased a little to 1 to 83, ”said one of the employees of the Catalina Sky Survey service. “This is one of the highest probabilities of a collision with a stone of significant size in history.”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was awarded 3 points on the Turin scale. This is a yellow hazard level. From the transition to the orange zone, it is separated by one score along a 10-point scale. The probability of its falling to the Earth is still insignificant, so there is nothing to fear, in general. Astronomers should remain attentive, which will begin to follow 2024 YR4 more intently.