NASA sharply increased the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, but then changed its mind

Until recently, the Moon in the skies over the United States prevented local observatories from observing faint near-Earth objects. Meanwhile, an object of increased danger to the planet is currently moving in the skies – asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a certain chance of colliding with the Earth on December 22, 2032. Additional observations by NASA scientists initially increased this probability from 2.2% to 3.1%, but a day later astronomers backed down.

Image source: AI generation DALL E/3DNews

The absence of the Moon in the sky has allowed us to gather more precise data on the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4. It is currently moving away from the planet in its orbit around the Sun, but will return to Earth in 2028 and then make a dangerously close approach on December 22, 2032.

Earth, the Moon’s orbit, and the yellow dots of asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit. Image credit: NASA

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on New Year’s Eve by the Chilean branch of the Robotic Asteroid Warning System (ATLAS). As of January 27, 2025, the chance of its impact with Earth was estimated at 1.2%. This probability was then increased to 2.2%, and recently, on February 18, 2025, to a frightening 3.1%. Fortunately, new data came in a day later, and the probability of impact was lowered to 1.5%.

Estimated based on observations as of February 19, 2025

The size and composition of the asteroid, as well as its precise orbit, will be refined as new observations are made, especially during the next flyby of Earth in 2028. The body is currently thought to be between 40 and 90 m in diameter. In the worst case, if the object is 90 m and has an iron core, its impact could cause destruction over an area up to 100 km in diameter. The expected impact zone is the equatorial region from India to South America.