Leading DRAM makers will completely stop producing DDR3 and DDR4 by the end of 2025, but it’s not certain

The DRAM market is set to change as falling prices amid weak demand forces major manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron to adjust their strategies. These companies are ramping up production of DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and may completely abandon DDR3 and DDR4 production by the end of this year.

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As reported by Digitimes, citing Nikkei and industry sources, three major DRAM memory manufacturers may stop producing DDR3 and DDR4 by the end of 2025. This could lead to a possible supply shortage of these memory types by the fall. The remaining supply on the market will largely depend on Taiwanese suppliers, who will try to fill the vacant niche. According to one of the key component distributors, the expected halt in DDR3 and DDR4 memory production could lead to significant supply constraints, complicate market dynamics and affect pricing strategies.

Taiwanese memory maker Nanya Technology predicts that the DRAM market will bottom out in the first half of 2025. However, a gradual recovery will begin in the second quarter, driven by rising demand, better inventory management, and global economic incentives. Demand for AI-powered cloud computing will remain strong, driving the edge computing segment. At the same time, consumer demand will grow only modestly, despite regional incentives.

Market experts predict that a significant portion of new manufacturing capacity will be devoted to the development of HBM and DDR5 technologies. The current decline in prices and demand for DDR3 and DDR4 signals a strategic shift as leading memory manufacturers focus their resources on scaling HBM manufacturing capabilities.

Faced with weak demand for legacy DDR memory, Winbond Electronics is upgrading its production and plans to switch to a 16nm process technology in the second half of 2025. The company currently uses a 20nm process technology, mainly producing 4Gb DDR3 and DDR4 memory based on it. The transition to a 16nm process technology will allow Winbond to produce 8Gb DDR memory.

According to inSpectrum, spot prices for DDR5 continue to rise despite relatively weak demand, while DDR4 prices remain stable. In turn, spot prices for DDR3 have shown a downward trend in recent years.