ASML Disappoints Investors With Future Uncertainty Due to US Tariffs

The Dutch company ASML, the world’s largest supplier of lithographic scanners for the production of advanced chips, accepts orders for its products with a reserve of at least several months. It is already possible to judge that customer activity has decreased due to the uncertainty caused by the tariffs introduced in the United States.

Image Source: ASML

ASML’s quarterly results showed that it booked €3.94 billion in chip manufacturing orders last quarter, compared to the €4.89 billion analysts had expected. That discrepancy alone sent ASML’s shares down 7.6% in stock trading on Wednesday. CEO Christophe Fouquet made clear that tariffs were creating a new source of uncertainty for both the economy and potential demand in various markets. In any case, ASML’s quarterly order book increased by more than 8% year-on-year. Of that, €1.2 billion was in EUV-related orders. The company also shipped its fifth High-NA EUV scanner in the first quarter, giving ASML three customers with such systems.

ASML’s revenue in the first quarter also failed to meet investors’ expectations, reaching only €7.74 billion versus the expected €7.8 billion. However, net profit exceeded analysts’ expectations and reached €2.36 billion versus the €2.3 billion forecast. In addition, the first quarter revenue matched ASML’s own forecast, and the profit margin reached 54%, exceeding it. In any case, the company’s revenue increased by 46% year-on-year, and net profit almost doubled. A year ago, ASML’s profit margin did not exceed 51%, so improvement is obvious in this area as well.

The head of ASML, although he noted that the demand for equipment remains at a fairly high level due to the growing market need for components for artificial intelligence systems, due to tariffs, the company’s revenue forecast for the current year should be perceived closer to the beginning of the range, namely, around 30 billion euros instead of the more optimistic 35 billion euros. A note of optimism came from Fouquet’s statement that consultations with ASML’s clients so far allow us to expect continued growth in the volume of orders both in 2025 and in 2026, since the AI ​​boom factor still dominates over obstacles to international trade. It is also important that ASML has left its revenue forecast for the current year within the same range.

In its report, ASML compares the results of the first quarter of the current year with the results of the fourth quarter of the previous year, using this method, a noticeable decrease in the number of lithography systems supplied by the company. New ones were shipped at 73 units against 119 units in the previous quarter, and the supply of used systems consistently decreased from 13 to 4 units.

China, which the US government is trying to shield from advanced chip manufacturing equipment, accounted for 27% of ASML’s revenue last quarter. That’s the same as in the fourth quarter of last year, but by the end of 2024, China accounted for 41% of the company’s revenue. This year, China’s share of ASML’s revenue should approach the more typical 20% of previous years. The company expects to earn between 7.2 and 7.7 billion euros this quarter, while investors were counting on 7.73 billion euros in revenue.