ASML did not revise its revenue forecast due to new US sanctions against China

The US authorities began this week with the expansion of export restrictions against China in the production of semiconductor products, which they called “climax”. The Dutch company ASML, which now receives about half of its total revenue from China, refused to revise its revenue forecast in light of the emergence of new US sanctions.

Image Source: ASML

Representatives of the Dutch government, as noted by Reuters, simultaneously stated that they share US national security concerns regarding the export of equipment intended for the production of advanced chips, and are currently studying updated export control rules. The Foreign Office said: “The Netherlands shares America’s concerns about the uncontrolled export of advanced semiconductor equipment.” At the same time, each country, according to officials, must itself assess the degree of threat and make independent decisions in the field of protecting national security.

So far, ASML’s revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged. The company expects to receive between 30 and 35 billion euros, of which China will account for about 20% versus the current 50%. In other words, the company has already foreseen the negative impact of American sanctions on its business in China earlier, and so far sees no reason to revise it.

ASML said the new US restrictions, if ratified by the Dutch authorities, would affect the company’s ability to supply its deep ultraviolet (DUV) scanners to China, but only for certain customers. The world’s largest maker of lithography systems announced that “in the long term, demand scenarios for the semiconductor industry should not be affected by the new rules as our scenarios are based on global demand.”

The US sanctions also affect the field of “computational lithography” – software that is used to control the laser beam and equipment when processing silicon wafers during the production of semiconductor chips. Such software is used in equipment from ASML, as well as from Japanese companies Nikon and Canon. Let us remind you that the new set of US export restrictions does not apply to the activities of companies from Japan and the Netherlands in general, but it is understood that the authorities of these countries, out of solidarity, should propose their own set of restrictions.