IDC analysts unexpectedly concluded that the current unstable tariff policy of the US administration will temporarily revive the personal computer market. In 2025, the volume of shipments could reach 274 million units, an increase of 4.1% compared to 2024, but a decline will begin in the second half of next year.
Image source: IDC
Previously, experts linked the possible growth to users switching from Windows 10 to Windows 11. Microsoft has repeatedly emphasized that official support for Windows 10 will end on October 14, 2025 (except for paid renewal options), which should have encouraged users to upgrade their hardware. However, IDC, as PCWorld notes, barely mentioned this factor, focusing more on the problem of new tariffs.
Instead of migrating the OS, the key factor was getting new PCs out early before high tariffs could be imposed. Tariffs on imported hardware ranged from 10% to more than 100%, depending on the month and country of origin. “The 90-day pause and tariff exemption for PCs, coupled with uncertainty about what will happen next, are encouraging manufacturers to ship more hardware to the U.S.,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, vice president of global PC market research at IDC.
However, the macroeconomic situation is expected to worsen in the second half of 2025. Pressure from rising prices and declining consumer demand will have a negative impact on the market. At the same time, business demand remains stable, as companies continue to update their equipment fleet in connection with the transition to Windows 11.
In Europe, the PC market is expected to grow in a more stable and familiar dynamic. The main factor will be the transition of commercial enterprises to Windows 11, while the consumer segment will suffer due to high prices.
Analysts note that the current market recovery is caused by temporary factors. As soon as tariff incentives end and economic conditions worsen, the market will begin to decline. Nevertheless, 2025 will generally remain favorable for PC manufacturers, especially in the corporate segment.