Analysts tell us what to expect from GTA VI – sales records, but not the salvation of the gaming industry

The fact that GTA VI will be a hit is already clear, but what kind of performance should we expect from the next part of the criminal saga of Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive? Answered by analysts surveyed by the Financial Times.

Image source: Rockstar Games

Video game research firm DFC Intelligence predicts that revenue from GTA VI pre-orders alone will exceed $1 billion ahead of its official release.

«We think this will be one of the biggest releases in the history of entertainment, not just gaming. We have never seen such levels of unmet demand,” reports IDG Consulting CEO Yoshio Osaki.

After the boom caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the growth of the gaming industry has slowed down and even GTA VI will not be able to return the industry to its previous pace

In the first 12 months after release, DFC believes that GTA VI will earn $3.2 billion, which is twice the result of GTA V (2013). For comparison: the box office of the two biggest films of 2024 is 1.7 billion (Inside Out 2) and 1.3 billion (Deadpool and Wolverine).

«I never celebrate a victory ahead of time. At the same time, I believe that Rockstar Games will once again release something absolutely phenomenal. Expectations are definitely high,” said Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick.

The release of GTA VI will come at a difficult time for the industry: since 2022, more than 33 thousand people have lost their jobs in the industry

Zelnik also assured that over the past eight years, Rockstar has significantly improved the technical component of its processes, so the manager does not expect any problems at the GTA Online launch level in the case of GTA VI.

GTA VI is still scheduled to be released in the fall of 2025 on PS5, Xbox Series X and S. Analysts estimate that development costs for the game (including post-release updates) range from $700 million to $2 billion.