Asteroid 2024 YR4, whose probability of collision with Earth rose to 3%, is no longer considered the most dangerous in the history of observations. Thanks to observations by the European Southern Observatory in Chile using the Very Large Telescope (VLT), it was possible to calculate the orbit of this celestial body most accurately. According to the latest data, the probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth is estimated at thousandths of a percent. You can breathe a sigh of relief – this is not our stone.
Image source: AI generation Grok 3/3DNews
New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 by the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (ESO’s VLT) and other instruments around the world have virtually eliminated the chance of the asteroid hitting our planet. It has been closely watched over the past couple of months, as the chance of it hitting Earth in 2032 had risen to around 3%, the highest ever for a large asteroid. However, after the latest observations, the chance of a collision has dropped to almost zero.
Image source: ESA
Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres in diameter, was discovered in late December 2024 in an orbit that could result in it colliding with Earth on 22 December 2032. Due to its size and likelihood of impact, the asteroid quickly rose to the top of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Risk List, a catalogue of all space rocks that have a non-zero chance of hitting Earth.
In mid-January, ESO’s VLT instrument was used to observe asteroid 2024 YR4, giving astronomers crucial data to more accurately calculate its orbit. Combined with data from other observatories, the VLT’s high-precision measurements improved our understanding of the asteroid’s orbit, pushing the impact probability above 1% – a key threshold for concern. More observations were made, and the International Asteroid Warning Network issued an alert about the potential impact, alerting planetary protection groups including the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group.
On 18 February, as several telescopes around the world observed the asteroid and astronomers modelled its orbit, the impact probability rose to around 3%. This was the highest impact probability ever recorded for an asteroid larger than 30 metres. However, the following day, new observations by ESO’s VLT halved the impact risk.
The jumps in determining the probability are explained simply. The orbit of a celestial body can only be determined by observing its movement for a sufficiently long time. There are many sources of gravity in the solar system that can influence the orbit of small celestial bodies, so all calculations must be constantly adjusted.
New observations from the VLT, combined with data from other observatories, have allowed astronomers to pin down the orbit accurately enough to virtually rule out a collision between 2024 YR4 and Earth in 2032. At the time of writing, the probability of a collision is around 0.001%, according to ESA’s Near Earth Object Coordination Centre, and the asteroid is no longer at the top of ESA’s risk list.