Elon Musk’s optimistic forecast for the growth of Tesla electric vehicle deliveries in 2025 led to a 22% rise in the company’s shares on Thursday, reaching $260.48 per share, CNBC reports. Exceeding the expectations of analysts and investors, this day became the best for the company over the past 11 years.
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While Tesla’s third-quarter revenue was $25.18 billion, slightly short of estimates of $25.37 billion, it was an 8% increase over the same period last year. Earnings per share reached 72 cents, beating expectations of 58 cents. JPMorgan analysts noted that this “earnings surprise could lead to an overall positive reaction to Tesla shares,” given that investors are used to frequent discrepancies in the company’s forecasts.
However, Tesla’s earnings growth was driven in part by revenue from the sale of environmental credits, which brought the company $739 million. Analysts at JPMorgan warn that this source of income could be potentially unstable in the long term as such credits are bought by other automakers that cannot meet environmental regulations. while Tesla, which only produces electric cars, has a surplus of them.
Another factor that positively influenced Tesla’s profits was the contribution of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which brought the company $326 million in revenue. Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said that the FSD system has become available for use in the new Cybertruck, and also received a new function for calling a car from a parking lot called “Actually Smart Summon.”
According to the head of Tesla, the company expects a 20-30% increase in car production in 2025 due to more affordable models and the emergence of self-driving electric vehicles. At the same time, Deutsche Bank analysts are more cautious, expecting supply growth at 10–15% (approximately 2.03 million). They believe Tesla will only be able to achieve these goals by introducing more affordable models, such as the $30,000 budget Model Y (including subsidies).
Morgan Stanley gave an estimate of 14%, describing Musk’s forecast for growth in auto shipments in 2025 as “possible.” “This certainly depends on the company’s ability to increase availability by introducing lower-cost (next-generation) models and offer improved features,” they said.
At the same time, experts from Bernstein noted that Musk often makes overly optimistic forecasts regarding autonomous driving, which do not always come true. They expressed doubts that Tesla would be able to overcome the technological and regulatory barriers needed to deploy fully autonomous robotaxis, adding that Tesla still lags behind competitors in this area.
Musk also said he plans to begin production of the new Cybercab robotaxi, which has guillotine doors and no steering wheel or pedals, by the end of 2026. He also intends to launch a self-driving taxi service in California and Texas as early as next year, although at the moment such cars require a driver to control the situation.