Apple is losing market share in China: eSIMs are slowing down iPhone sales

Experts predict a decline in iPhone shipments and Apple’s share of the Chinese market in 2025. Among the reasons are the company’s focus on devices with eSIM (digital SIM card) and the lack of user interest in the Apple Intelligence artificial intelligence function.

Image Source: Apple

As reported by CNBC, citing a report by renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities, who specializes in Apple’s supply chain, the company took a cautious stance when discussing iPhone production plans for 2025 with key suppliers. Even with the iPhone SE 4 slated to launch in the first half of this year, iPhone shipments could be down 6% year-on-year.

Kuo, who is considered one of the top Apple analysts, also noted that the company’s further decline in the Chinese market share is due to the design features of the two new iPhone models. According to him, these devices will be so thin that they can exclusively support eSIM, which is not yet widespread in China. “These models may face demand problems if their design is not changed,” the analyst said.

It is noted that in December 2024, the total volume of smartphone shipments in China remained at the same level as last year, but iPhone shipments fell by 10–12%. Additionally, Apple’s new AI-based Intelligence feature has not yet increased demand for new devices capable of using the feature.

By the end of 2024, Apple plans to ship about 220 million iPhones, and in 2025, 220–225 million devices. These figures, according to the analyst, are below the market forecast of about 240 million. Apple has not yet responded to journalists’ requests for comment, and amid Kuo’s report, the company’s shares fell 2.4% on Friday.