Prices for conventional DRAM memory will decrease by 8-13%, and taking into account HBM products, the expected price reduction will be 0-5%. This forecast for the first quarter of 2025 was made by the analytical company TrendForce. Experts say the key reasons for the decline in memory prices are a decrease in market demand and changes in price trends in the fourth quarter of 2024.
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Sluggish consumer demand, an expected increase in DDR4 production from Chinese suppliers, and cheap DRAM chips flooding the spot market will lead to a steeper decline in DDR4 prices compared to DDR5. Against this backdrop, PC DRAM prices are expected to continue to decline faster than in the previous quarter.
For server DRAM, contract prices for both DDR5 and DDR4 are forecast to decline due to weak seasonal demand early next year. The repurposing of significant amounts of capacity for the production of DDR4 memory by manufacturers, and also to a lesser extent HBM for the production of DDR5 memory, has further increased the volume of DDR5 offerings on the market, experts note. At the same time, impressive stocks of DDR4 memory and plans by Chinese manufacturers to increase its production volumes in 2025 will lead to an accelerated decline in prices for this type of product, analysts say.
TrendForce notes that smartphone manufacturers’ inventories of DRAM chips have returned to normal levels. It is expected that early next year, mobile device manufacturers will continue to pursue a passive strategy for purchasing new memory chips in order to achieve better contract prices. At the same time, deliveries of new products for the first quarter of 2025 will begin by the end of this year. Taken together, this strategy is expected to result in contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X memory falling by 8-13% and 3-8%, respectively.
Demand for graphics DRAM will be subdued in early 2025. The key driver of growth will be the supply of new generation GDDR7 memory. However, against the backdrop of an overall decline in demand for DRAM, TrendForce forecasts that the average purchasing price for graphics DRAM in the first quarter will decrease by 5-10%. Although part of the production capacity is gradually redirected to the production of HBM, prices for graphics DRAM are unlikely to remain stable in the short term due to its vulnerability to external market dynamics and increased inventories among buyers.
Consumer DRAM prices began declining in the fourth quarter of 2024. Buyers will expect this trend to continue in the first quarter of 2025, providing strong leverage when negotiating with suppliers.
Weak sales of consumer products, limited growth in memory capacity in appliances, and memory stockpiling from the second quarter of 2024 have added pressure on prices. In addition, oversupply in the spot market and discount sales are expected to lead to sharper declines in memory contract prices in the first quarter of 2025. Subsequently, prices for DDR3 and DDR4 are predicted to decline by 3–8% and 10–15%, respectively.