The huge NASA SLS rocket may never take off again – what does this mean for returning to the Moon and what does Elon Musk have to do with it?

Experts believe that the United States has little chance of winning the new lunar race if it continues on its current course. NASA has accumulated many internal problems, and government launches are many times more expensive than private ones. So the coming to power of Donald Trump in January, whose budget spending adviser will be SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, could push the United States to transfer the lunar program into the hands of private investors and change the entire space program.

Image source: NASA

American space journalist Eric Berger recently wrote on the X network: “To be clear, we are far from a final decision, but from what I hear, it is at least 50/50 that the NASA Space Launch System rocket will launch will be cancelled.” Eric Berger is considered an authority in his field, having written and published two best-selling books about the inner workings of SpaceX. But there are many more signals about problems with the implementation of the NASA Artemis lunar program than from one author.

An internal audit of NASA showed the total unpreparedness and inability of the agency and contractors to produce rocket systems and infrastructure facilities on time. In addition to deadlines, budget costs are growing, which NASA explains by the practice of concluding contracts with a floating price. At the same time, SpaceX already launches reusable Falcon 9 rockets 30 times more often than Shuttles and 100 times cheaper. The new owner of the White House may be inclined to decide to shift the lunar program to the shoulders of SpaceX and other private companies.

On the other hand, the SLS rocket, with all its shortcomings and, above all, the exorbitant launch cost – over $2 billion for each launch – has already delivered the Orion spacecraft to lunar orbit with a subsequent return to Earth, albeit without a crew. Obviously, she can do it again, having done her part in getting Americans back to the Moon. There is production, infrastructure and technology for this. Hypothetically, such work could be done by the Falcon Heavy rocket, but this would require its modification and preparation, which would take time.

According to the most optimistic forecasts, astronauts will land on the Moon in the fall of 2026. Moreover, Elon Musk promises to send a crew to Mars in 2028. He was inspired by the first test results of the Starship first stage being picked up by the servicing truss during the fifth test launch of the rocket. Of course, this can be called a revolution in astronautics. However, Musk has already made loud statements many times, which do not always coincide with the real state of affairs.

Actually, the Starship is the second unknown in NASA’s Artemis program. This ship must deliver a descent module into lunar orbit. There are two years left before this event, but Starship has not even entered orbit, not to mention other tasks – refueling in space, unmanned flights to the Moon and landing on its surface. It looks fantastically difficult to create a full-fledged manned rocket in such a period of time. All this makes us fear that the more conservative Chinese will land people on the moon by 2030, as planned.

This is not the entire list of problems with NASA’s lunar program. Among the troubles is the Boeing company, whose production culture and technical control have fallen below zero. There is the collapsing heat shield of Lockheed Martin’s Orion spacecraft, about which the old NASA administration, which is leaving with the advent of Trump, is afraid to tell the truth. There is an unfinished more powerful mobile launcher for the SLS weighted rocket and much more that is being talked about behind closed doors.

It’s funny that the Artemis program was adopted during Trump’s first term as US President in 2017. If he closes it in his new term, it will literally turn out according to the classics: “I gave birth to you, I will kill you.” According to experts, the decisive factor will be how important leadership in the new lunar and space race will be for the United States. If this is not a priority, NASA programs will be seriously revised.

The SLS rocket will likely be useful for other missions. In addition, no one bothers to announce that the United States is now targeting Mars, and not the Moon, considering it of little interest. This would shift the conversation about primacy into the uncertain future, which benefits Musk, who talks about colonizing Mars as his life’s goal.