Traditional web search is increasingly becoming the preserve of older generations, which poses a tangible threat to Google’s core business. The company risks losing its dominant position in web search, and with it in the digital advertising segment, writes The Wall Street Journal.
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The negative factors threatening Google’s well-being are so numerous and interconnected that the US Department of Justice’s demand for a forced division of the company may be the least of its problems. Google’s search business, which it views as its core, faces a tangible threat: people are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence systems to search for information. At the same time, the quality of search results is constantly deteriorating due to the fact that the presence of sites that are filled with materials created by the same AI is actively growing. This trend could lead to a long-term decline in Google’s search traffic and the accompanying colossal profits that support numerous money-losing projects of the company’s Alphabet holding company, including its autonomous vehicle unit Waymo.
The first danger that Google faces is obvious and real: when people want to buy something or find information about products on the Internet, they immediately go to competitors, and after them, advertising funds go away. Already in 2025, Google’s share of the US search advertising market could fall below 50% for the first time in recorded history, according to eMarketer’s forecast. This threat was also cited by the company itself, which was brought to court in an antitrust case. For example, people no longer open Google to search for products on Amazon. TikTok’s share of the US digital advertising market is only 4%, but the short-form video service has significant growth potential: according to the platform itself, 23% of users open a search within the first 30 seconds of launching the app, and it processes 3 billion queries worldwide per day.
The second immediate threat is the rise in popularity of systems that simply answer questions rather than act as traditional search services. OpenAI has added a search function to ChatGPT, and Meta✴ is thinking about its own next-generation search engine. AI chatbots are becoming more and more accessible practically: Microsoft and Apple are integrating them into their operating systems. Analysts compare this situation with the displacement of traditional hypermarkets by representatives of the e-commerce sector or with the way Microsoft underestimated the potential of smartphones with the release of the iPhone. Google began showing summaries prepared by generative AI in search results, but this step, by its own admission, was a response to the actions of competitors – startups and technology giants.
A third trend unfavorable to Google, and one that the company can do little about, is the degradation of the website ecosystem it has built and depends on. The proliferation of AI-generated content is reducing the quality of search results, and Google’s response is to provide AI summaries in SERPs without the need to open links to sites, only accelerating the demise of the Internet as we know it. The Internet is an ecosystem in which Google is one of the leading providers of traffic, and therefore revenue. Without traffic from Google, there will be less incentive and resources to continue launching sites that are attractive to Google’s search algorithm.
This process has already begun. Google continues to report revenue growth for the quarter, but the rate at which users clicked on ads in search results decreased by 8% year-over-year – perhaps this is due to AI summaries that relieve users of the need to not only go to websites in search results, but also even scroll to the end of the page. When this mechanism is fully deployed, changes to Google search will cost site owners $2 billion in lost revenue, Raptive estimates. However, one should not expect rapid developments, experts are sure: people tend to adhere to certain habits, and until AI shows significant qualitative superiority over Google search, the majority will continue to use the usual system.
The US Department of Justice demanded that Google abandon agreements to select the default search engine on platforms, devices and other products of partners, and that the company sell the Chrome browser and Android OS projects. There is an opinion that Google will be able to come to an agreement with the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who adheres to conservative views, and will not come to such radical measures. But competition in an area that is a company’s core business may be a more tangible threat to its well-being.