Laptop shipments have returned to decline—only Apple is projected to grow this quarter

DigiTimes Research experts somewhat anticipated the not-so-optimistic forecasts of large laptop manufacturers such as Dell or HP Inc., saying at the beginning of the week that from the fourth calendar quarter of this year we should expect a consistent decline in laptop shipments to the world market by 3%.

Image source: Microsoft

At the same time, in the third quarter, according to the source, global laptop shipments grew sequentially by 5.8%, forming a high base for comparison that was not the most profitable for the fourth quarter. The authors of the report associate the revival of the laptop market in the third quarter with the emergence of models based on new processors with artificial intelligence acceleration, demand from gamers and the release of new Apple MacBook models. At the same time, the corporate segment did not demonstrate any particular growth in laptop shipments in the third quarter.

According to DigiTimes Research forecasts, for the entire year, the volume of laptop shipments to the global market will increase by 5.4% to 175 million units. Prior to this, for two years in a row, the laptop market had only been declining, since the pandemic period had saturated the demand for this type of device for a long time.

If we consider the activity of individual market players, Lenovo should focus on its home market in China in the fourth quarter, but this will not help the company avoid the negative impact of falling demand in Europe and North America. Competing for second place is HP Inc. will certainly face a decrease in demand for models in the middle and upper price categories, as well as in the corporate segment. Dell can keep its notebook shipments stable, but only due to the low base effect in previous periods. In the case of Dell and HP Inc. DigiTimes Research’s forecasts relate to the results of the third calendar quarter, and the reports of both companies published today only partially justify them.

In the fourth quarter, Apple will be the only top-six laptop vendor to post growth as it introduces the next-generation MacBook Pro. As the source adds, the share of Taiwanese contract laptop manufacturers in the global market for related services will decrease to 71.1% by the end of the fourth quarter. Compared to others, Compal Electronics will perform better than anyone else, as its two largest customers will begin to increase the volume of laptops they order for production.