Global PC sales fell last quarter, and AI computers won’t hit the mainstream until 2026

In the third quarter of this year, global shipments of personal computers (PCs) decreased by 2.4% compared to the same period last year, to 68.8 million units. Despite signs of global economic recovery, the PC market took a break after two quarters of moderate growth. Experts call the integration of AI into new PC models a key factor in future growth.

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According to preliminary estimates from the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, the decline in PC shipments in the third quarter of 2024 is due to a number of factors. Rising production costs and the need to replenish inventories led to a surge in shipments in the second quarter, which caused a slowdown in sales in the third quarter. This phenomenon is observed against the backdrop of a general recovery of the global economy, which creates a paradoxical situation in the PC market.

Market share of the Top 5 PC manufacturers in the world, Q3 2024. Image source: IDC

Ubrani predicts rapid growth in the premium segment of the PC market. The key drivers of this growth in the coming months will be new PC models with integrated AI. Among the most promising new products, the expert highlights the Copilot+ PC with Qualcomm processors, as well as Intel and AMD chips, and the upcoming Mac computers with Apple M4 processors.

Lynn Huang, vice president of device and display research at IDC, gives a more reserved forecast regarding the pace of AI adoption in the PC segment. “While we expect AI to reach ubiquity by the end of this decade, the path to the mass market will take longer than originally expected. We predict that this will happen no earlier than 2026,” the expert says. According to Huang, in the next year and a half, the industry will focus on developing specialized software, identifying specific use cases for AI in PCs, and identifying target audiences for AI-enabled devices.

Global shipments and market share of Top 5 PC manufacturers in Q3 2024. Image source: IDC

Despite the overall decline in supply, commercial demand outside the education sector is showing resilience. Many companies have initiated the process of updating their PC fleet due to the imminent end of support for Windows 10. Japan is leading the process, showing double-digit growth in PC sales in the third quarter of 2024. IDC analysts predict that other markets will follow suit in the coming quarters, which could be an additional growth driver for the industry.

Apple’s position in the PC market deserves special attention. The company demonstrated impressive results in the first half of 2024. Currently, the industry is eagerly awaiting the announcement of new products from the Apple tech giant, in particular, devices based on M4 processors with advanced AI capabilities. These new products can significantly affect the balance of power in the premium segment of the computer market.