IDC specialists discerned in the current dynamics of the smartphone market the prerequisites for its more active growth by the end of 2024. They now expect smartphone shipments to grow 5.8% this year to 1.23 billion units, up from the 4% increase previously forecast. The improvement in the forecast was facilitated by the positive results of the first half of the year.
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According to IDC analysts, in the first quarter of this year, smartphone shipments increased by 12%, and in the second – by 9%. Entry-level Android smartphones are very popular in countries with growing economies. In markets with strong economies, consumers are more interested in expensive smartphone models that offer artificial intelligence features. The Chinese smartphone market is also showing positive demand dynamics.
If smartphones running Android this year will increase sales by 7.1%, then competing Apple iPhones in unit terms will add only 0.8%, according to IDC analysts. In this case, Apple products are hampered not only by competitors in the Chinese market, but also by the high base effect formed a year earlier. It is possible that the successful debut of the Apple Intelligence generative artificial intelligence functions, together with the release of the iPhone 16 family, will provide Apple products with higher demand dynamics in the current half of the year. In 2025, this factor will already provide Apple smartphones with the opportunity to increase supply volumes by 4%.
In general, smartphones with generative AI functions will increase sales volumes by 344% this year and capture 18% of the market, according to IDC analysts. On the other hand, the spread of such devices will be hampered by their high cost, since flagship models in this case may turn out to be twice as simple as their predecessors. Previously, IDC predicted that smartphones with AI functions would achieve a 19% share by the end of this year. Accordingly, in this regard the forecast changed to a more pessimistic one.