Boeing will not have time to complete all manned Starliner launches before the ISS is decommissioned

Ten years ago, the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) selected Boeing as one of the primary developers of spacecraft to carry astronauts to the International Space Station. Now it is becoming increasingly clear that the company will not have time to conduct six planned manned missions – even a test flight will end with the Starliner ship returning to Earth without a crew.

Image source: Boeing

At the time of signing the agreement with NASA, Boeing received funding in the amount of $4.2 billion and a contract to conduct two, and potentially six, manned missions associated with the rotation of astronauts between Earth and the ISS. At the same time, SpaceX received funding in the amount of $2.6 billion to carry out almost the same amount of work.

Ten years later, the Boeing project was at a crossroads after NASA announced that the Starliner spacecraft would return to Earth without a crew. Astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who launched into space on the Starliner spacecraft on June 5, will have to return to Earth on the SpaceX Crew Dragon. This suggests that NASA has doubts about Boeing’s ability to safely bring astronauts to Earth, which is understandable given the number of difficulties that Starliner encountered during its flight to the ISS.

Boeing’s failure to complete its first crewed test mission could mean it won’t be able to complete six missions to fly astronauts to the ISS before the station retires in 2030. After NASA announced that Starliner would return to Earth without a crew, Boeing representatives made no official statements. At the same time, NASA assured that the manufacturer is still involved in the manned space flight program. It is noteworthy that under the terms of the contract with NASA, Boeing is required to pay any costs associated with correcting engine problems and other defects that will be required before Starliner can resume flights.

Boeing’s financial statements already included $1.6 billion in costs due to delays and cost overruns in the Starliner program. Obviously, this figure will increase as the company will likely have to redesign some elements of the engine system design to correct problems that arose during the Crew Flight Test mission. In total, NASA has allocated $5.1 billion for the Starliner program and most of this money has already been paid.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard the ISS / Image source: NASA

If Boeing were able to complete the test mission successfully, the first of six missions to deliver astronauts to the ISS could take place in 2025. Now there is a high probability that the Starliner spacecraft with astronauts will take flight no earlier than 2026. During a test flight, Starliner managed to deliver two crew members to the ISS on June 6, but 5 of the ship’s 28 engines overheated and failed. This has led NASA to worry that similar or even more serious problems could arise when adjusting course on the return trip. Against this background, the decision was made to abandon the use of Starliner to return astronauts to Earth. Because of this, two astronauts who were supposed to spend 8 days on the ISS will remain on the orbital station for eight months, after which they will return to Earth on the SpaceX Crew Dragon ship.

Boeing officials have repeatedly said the Starliner is safe enough to carry Wilmore and Suni to Earth. Boeing’s Starliner program head, Mark Nappi, tried to downplay the severity of the problem with the spacecraft’s engine. However, NASA engineers ultimately came to different conclusions. This is likely due to the fact that many NASA leaders either flew into space themselves or witnessed the crash of the space shuttle Columbia in 2003, when seven astronauts died due to technical problems.

«We care about all our employees – if you have any objections, you speak up. Spaceflight is risky, even in the safest and most routine cases. And a test flight by its nature is neither safe nor routine. Therefore, the decision to keep Butch and Suni aboard the ISS and fly Starliner home uncrewed is the result of a commitment to safety,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said this week.

While the solution to bringing astronauts to Earth on a SpaceX ship appears simple, NASA and Boeing still have questions to answer about how the Starliner mission ended up in this situation. The space agency cleared the spacecraft for a crewed test flight in June knowing there was a helium leak in the engine system. During the flight, this problem repeated itself, and several correction engines also failed.

Image source: NASA

It is curious that during the second test flight of Starliner, during which the ship without a crew reached the ISS and returned to Earth, problems were also recorded in the operation of the engines correcting the flight path. Boeing engineers thought they had fixed the problem by making changes to the software used to control the engine system. However, in reality it turned out that the problem was in the Teflon valve seal, which swells when overheated and limits the flow of fuel to the engine.

NASA noted that the engines are clearly operating at a higher temperature than the one for which they are designed. The agency spokesman also said that engineers should have taken a closer look at the results of the previous Starliner flight. If this had been done in a timely manner, the problems the ship encountered during its current mission would likely have been avoided.

NASA officials said this week that it was too early to draw conclusions about the need for an additional Starliner test flight. Regardless of the final decision, it is unlikely that we should expect new missions involving the Boeing spacecraft next year, since the company’s engineers will in any case have to do work to eliminate the identified shortcomings. At this time, NASA will continue to rely on SpaceX ships to transport astronauts to the ISS, since Elon Musk’s company has already managed to prove the reliability of Crew Dragon.