There is still no informed decision on the return to Earth of the crew of the Boeing Starliner ship “stuck” on the ISS. The astronauts flew to the station for a week, and have been there for almost two months. The return of people on a Boeing ship is associated with a certain risk, but refusal to use Starliner threatens the closure of the program and losses for the company, as well as reputational losses for NASA. The agency is delaying the decision and exploring alternatives.
Image source: NASA
The Arstechnica resource has collected a number of unofficial data on the situation with the discussion of the Starliner problem at NASA and received their confirmation from a number of third-party, but reliable sources. Firstly, there is a certain risk of flying on a Boeing ship to Earth, and this has created a kind of lobby at NASA to refuse to use the Starliner manned capsule.
It seems that this risk is high enough that NASA decided to take this option without resistance. Tests of the ship’s maneuvering engines in orbit last weekend were generally “good,” but the discussion of their results, which began on Tuesday, was decided to continue next week, and a meeting scheduled for August 1 on this issue was cancelled.
All this time, NASA preferred not to talk specifically about the return of the Starliner crew in an alternative way, for example, on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon ships. The agency emphasized each time that they were studying all ways to return the crew to Earth. At the same time, SpaceX received $266,678 from NASA on July 14 for a “special research on emergency response” program. NASA said that this program is not related to the Starliner problem. Arstechnica sources have refuted this official position: it has, yes.
It is assumed that SpaceX will study the issue of placing five or six astronauts on the Crew Dragon ships. At least, spacesuits for flight in Crew Dragon capsules have already been selected for the Starliner crew. It is also known that on August 18, the next dispatch of the duty crew was planned on the Crew Dragon ship (mission Crew-9). Two people can fly instead of four (the standard maximum capacity of the ship). SpaceX is allegedly working on such a scenario. Then Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams can return as standard ships. Alternatively, it is possible to return with crews of five people per ship.
An unnamed source told Arstechnica that the likelihood of Wilmore and Williams returning on the Crew Dragon is higher than 50%. NASA and Boeing are trying to avoid such a scenario. If something irreparable happens during the return of Starliner, the liability of the parties will skyrocket. It seems that this is the front where the main battle is going on today: the balance of risk and reward for it.