China will hit a near-Earth asteroid with a kamikaze probe in 2030

The China National Space Administration (CNSA) said it will conduct its first asteroid defense exercise in 2030. This will be an experiment akin to NASA’s DART mission to impact the Dimorph asteroid. The Chinese chose asteroid 2015 XF261 as their 30th target. It is almost six times smaller than Dimorph and will be much more difficult to hit.

Image source: Don Davis/NASA

Creating planetary defenses is the most noble thing that can be expected from the space race. Leaving out the possibility of controlling near-Earth space by the cosmic forces of a particular country, protecting the Earth from dangerous asteroids may someday save the life of every inhabitant of the planet.

China will build an asteroid impact experiment on a more solid foundation than NASA did when planning the DART mission. In a sense, NASA acted at random, not having accurate data about the object of influence. This caused the target asteroid to behave in an unpredictable manner, as its top layer was made of dust and rubble. And the exact impact on the object will become known only in 2026, when the Hera mission probes, which have not yet been launched, reach the affected asteroid.

China will first send a research probe to the target asteroid to comprehensively assess its composition, shape and geology. The probe’s radars, spectrometers, cameras and sensors orbiting the asteroid will study 2015 XF261 for months on end. Only after this will the asteroid be hit by a kamikaze probe. The research vehicle in orbit of the asteroid will then spend up to 12 months studying the impact on it. The Chinese experiment will turn out to be more accurate and, probably, more spectacular, since it will be able to photograph and video record an impact on an asteroid from close range in real time.